Bigger 10 gets its own TV network
The Big 10 announced today that it will launch its own television network, which is scheduled to go on the air in August 2007.
This got me thinking. Would it be feasible for the Big 12 to start its own, Big 12 sports network? Not that I'd be rooting for that, I mean, how much money will it start to cost in order to sit down in front of the TV and watch a college sporting event?
Anyways, I looked at Big 10 enrollments and populations of major cities, which could be considered a part of the Big 10 "market" and compared this to similar data for the Big 12 enrollments and cities in the Big 12 "market".
Here is what I found for the Big 10:
School/Enrollment/Location/Metro-Area Population
Illinois/40,620/Champaign-Urbana, IL/180,000
Indiana/37,958/Bloomington, IN/120,000
Iowa/29,642/Iowa City, IA/111,000
Michigan/39,000/Detroit-Flint-Ann Arbor, MI/5,750,000
Michigan State/45,166/Lansing-East Lansing, MI/450,000
Minnesota/51,194/Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN/2,960,000
Northwestern/7,826/Evanston, IL (Chicago)/9,100,000
Ohio State/50,504/Columbus, OH/1,540,000
Penn State/41,289/State College, PA/135,000
Purdue/38,563/West Lafayette, IN/182,000
Wisconsin/42,000/Madison, WI/425,000
Totals: na/423,492/na/20,953,000
I decided to add Milwaukee (1.69M) and Indianapolis (1.6M) for obvious reasons. I also think half of the following cities should be added: Cleveland (1.5M), Pittsburgh (1.2M), Des Moines (225,000) and Cincinatti (950,000) (populations shown are halved) because I am assuming that half of those could be considered a part of the "interested" market, but not all of the population because they either do not have a Big 10 school in the immediate metro area or there is a local university from another conference in that city.
Adding these populations together results in an approximate "highly interested" market population of 28,000,000. This is just a rough estimate, but qualified at some level.
Now for the Big 12:
School/Enrollment/Location/Metro-Area Population
Baylor/14,117/Waco, TX/213,000
Colorado/29,151/Denver-Boulder-Greeley, CO/2,600,000
Iowa State/26,700/Ames, IA/25,000
Kansas/26,980/Lawrence, KS/99,000
Kansas State/23,000/Manhattan, KS/45,000
Missouri/27,003/Columbia, MO/135,000
Nebraska/21,792/Lincoln, NE/250,000
Oklahoma/27,282/Oklahoma City-Norman, OK/1,083,000
Oklahoma State/21,113/Stillwater, OK/39,000
Texas/50,337/Austin, TX/1,240,000
Texas A&M/43,924/Bryant-College Station, TX/152,000
Texas Tech/28,325/Lubbock, TX/242,000
Totals: na/339,724/na/6,123,000
I would add Omaha (720,000), Kansas City (1,780,000) and half of the following cities: St. Louis (1,300,000), Dallas (2,600,000), Houston (2,350,000) and San Antonio (800,000) (populations shown are halved). Now we could also include Tulsa (803,000), Wichita (545,000) and Springfield, MO (325,000), but as you can see after awhile they don't amount to much, and I didn't add those type of cities to the Big 10 market.
This sum of populations would give the Big 12 a "highly interested" market population of 17,350,000.
Here are the differentials:
Enrollment: Big 10 +83,768 (+24.6%)
"Highly Interested" Population: Big 10 +15,650,000 (+90.2%)
So, since this is a new TV station, there is some amount of risk that the Big 10 is taking on here, albeit with Fox Sports as a partner. Accepting that it would be a marginal risk for the Big 10, a similar move could not possibly be worthwhile to the Big 12, given that it has just over half the "highly interested" population, not to mention a smaller total enrollment and the associated smaller alumni bases.
Now this isn't to say Big 12 sports are any worse or our fans wouldn't be interested in such a network, but TV is all about advertising revenue. When you can pull the markets the Big 10 can, then maybe it's worth it. I'm not sure I can say the same for the Big 12, no matter how badly I want to watch re-runs of Gary Barnett getting bent after the 2000 loss at Nebraska. Yeah, that game, the one where he squib kicked it after they took a one-point lead after a successful two-point conversion with less than a minute remaining.
On second thought, maybe this thing has possibilities...
This got me thinking. Would it be feasible for the Big 12 to start its own, Big 12 sports network? Not that I'd be rooting for that, I mean, how much money will it start to cost in order to sit down in front of the TV and watch a college sporting event?
Anyways, I looked at Big 10 enrollments and populations of major cities, which could be considered a part of the Big 10 "market" and compared this to similar data for the Big 12 enrollments and cities in the Big 12 "market".
Here is what I found for the Big 10:
School/Enrollment/Location/Metro-Area Population
Illinois/40,620/Champaign-Urbana, IL/180,000
Indiana/37,958/Bloomington, IN/120,000
Iowa/29,642/Iowa City, IA/111,000
Michigan/39,000/Detroit-Flint-Ann Arbor, MI/5,750,000
Michigan State/45,166/Lansing-East Lansing, MI/450,000
Minnesota/51,194/Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN/2,960,000
Northwestern/7,826/Evanston, IL (Chicago)/9,100,000
Ohio State/50,504/Columbus, OH/1,540,000
Penn State/41,289/State College, PA/135,000
Purdue/38,563/West Lafayette, IN/182,000
Wisconsin/42,000/Madison, WI/425,000
Totals: na/423,492/na/20,953,000
I decided to add Milwaukee (1.69M) and Indianapolis (1.6M) for obvious reasons. I also think half of the following cities should be added: Cleveland (1.5M), Pittsburgh (1.2M), Des Moines (225,000) and Cincinatti (950,000) (populations shown are halved) because I am assuming that half of those could be considered a part of the "interested" market, but not all of the population because they either do not have a Big 10 school in the immediate metro area or there is a local university from another conference in that city.
Adding these populations together results in an approximate "highly interested" market population of 28,000,000. This is just a rough estimate, but qualified at some level.
Now for the Big 12:
School/Enrollment/Location/Metro-Area Population
Baylor/14,117/Waco, TX/213,000
Colorado/29,151/Denver-Boulder-Greeley, CO/2,600,000
Iowa State/26,700/Ames, IA/25,000
Kansas/26,980/Lawrence, KS/99,000
Kansas State/23,000/Manhattan, KS/45,000
Missouri/27,003/Columbia, MO/135,000
Nebraska/21,792/Lincoln, NE/250,000
Oklahoma/27,282/Oklahoma City-Norman, OK/1,083,000
Oklahoma State/21,113/Stillwater, OK/39,000
Texas/50,337/Austin, TX/1,240,000
Texas A&M/43,924/Bryant-College Station, TX/152,000
Texas Tech/28,325/Lubbock, TX/242,000
Totals: na/339,724/na/6,123,000
I would add Omaha (720,000), Kansas City (1,780,000) and half of the following cities: St. Louis (1,300,000), Dallas (2,600,000), Houston (2,350,000) and San Antonio (800,000) (populations shown are halved). Now we could also include Tulsa (803,000), Wichita (545,000) and Springfield, MO (325,000), but as you can see after awhile they don't amount to much, and I didn't add those type of cities to the Big 10 market.
This sum of populations would give the Big 12 a "highly interested" market population of 17,350,000.
Here are the differentials:
Enrollment: Big 10 +83,768 (+24.6%)
"Highly Interested" Population: Big 10 +15,650,000 (+90.2%)
So, since this is a new TV station, there is some amount of risk that the Big 10 is taking on here, albeit with Fox Sports as a partner. Accepting that it would be a marginal risk for the Big 10, a similar move could not possibly be worthwhile to the Big 12, given that it has just over half the "highly interested" population, not to mention a smaller total enrollment and the associated smaller alumni bases.
Now this isn't to say Big 12 sports are any worse or our fans wouldn't be interested in such a network, but TV is all about advertising revenue. When you can pull the markets the Big 10 can, then maybe it's worth it. I'm not sure I can say the same for the Big 12, no matter how badly I want to watch re-runs of Gary Barnett getting bent after the 2000 loss at Nebraska. Yeah, that game, the one where he squib kicked it after they took a one-point lead after a successful two-point conversion with less than a minute remaining.
On second thought, maybe this thing has possibilities...
posted by Anonymous at 7:13 PM
9 Comments:
What detail. I almost pulled out a slide ruler in the middle of that post. No way could the Big 12 make such a venture for the reasons you stated. The Big 12 is in generally smaller markets and too spread out. The Big 10 has the advantage of being in a fairly consilidated and highly populated area, with huge markets like Minneapolis/St. Paul, Chicago, Detroit, Columbus, Indianapolis, etc.
good god, how much time do you have on your hands?? Anyway I would tend to disagree. What you haven't taken into account are pro sports having a major impact on the midwest or Big 10 country, and at what time of the day they generally play. 9 AM out west. The Big 12 is in a nice medium for the East and West Coasts. The Big 10 also has to compete with the MAC and the Big East. Plus the Big 12 has won what, 10 national championships in the last 30 years and the big ten 2(3)? I don't know, football wise i think it's even footing for ratings even with a larger fan base in those areas.
out
Too much time, clearly, but I was happy to take my mind off work for a couple hours. That and I was determined to see what the numbers would bear out.
And G, you haven't convinced me. I still don't think the Big 12 has the audience the Big 10 does.
A third of the US Population lives in California alone. How many people wake up at 9 on a saturday to watch college football besides the diehards?? Still think you are selling the Big 12 short on this subject. Maybe you should look at Attendance Numbers Also? Let me know what you come up with.
Sto, As an Abel 8 alum, I think I'm entitled to be able to start new topics on this blog if that is cool with you. What do you think?
Thanks
DTK
This is only a test
Ok here's some numbers for you. 2005 attendance for the conferences,
1. SEC 5.5 mil
2. The Big Can't Count 5 mil
3. The Big 12 4.2 mil
Also to note Penn State, Michigan, and OSU all averaging over 100,000 a game had 7 games at home last year.
2004
1. SEC 5.7 mil
2. BCC 4.6 mil
3. Big one two 4.1 mil
2003
1. SEC 6.1 mil
2. BCC 5.2 mil
3. Big 12 4.5 mil
Maybe the SEC should begin their own TV network instead.
Interesting numbers G. But I don't think it has as much to do with game attendance or on the field success as it does with the sheer audiences the Big 10 will garner due to their widespread popularity. I mean, yeah, they have to be successful, this would never work successfully for the MAC or C-USA, but they don't have to be the MOST successful in terms of attendence, national championships, etc.
Much like TC said the other night to me, even in down years, a Michigan State v. Penn State matchup is going to get numbers whereas a Texas Tech v. Missouri matchup is likely to get nothing by comparison.
There's a reason why ESPN has covered all those B10 games on Saturdays for all these years while the rest of us are left with FSN, TBS, Jefferson-Pilot Sports, etc. A corollary to my post would be that ESPN and the Big 10 extended their agreement which pays the Big 10 something like $50M a year. I don't know what the Big 12 agreements are.
I agree more people will watch the MSU PSU matchup, heck I would, but that's not the point. All it takes is one GIANT matchup game such as the National Championship game to dwarf all of those little games in terms of viewership. You can take all the Northwestern vs Purdues you want but if the Big 12 is playing consistently in the more important and bigger games then i'm sorry but it doesn't matter where you live. People will watch, unless the game is on at 9 in the morning, then they won't.
Plus doesn't that agreement include Basketball also?? My point is Big 12 football is passing the Big 10 in importance and with that comes viewership. I don't have any info to back this but I'm sure the big 12's TV ratings are twofold what they were in 1996. They have room to grow as the big 10 keeps floundering . . .that conference is wounded and is being passed by. Soon enough the ACC, SEC, and Big 12 will be the superconferences. UNLESS the Big 10 gets Notre Lame and finally have a championship game. Only then will I say the Big 10 is a worthy investment for the future. As of now my advice is Sell your stock on that Conference.
out
g
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